EIA expects electricity growth to be mostly met by renewables

EIA expects electricity from solar, wind, and hydropower combined to account for 22% of total US generation in 2024, increasing to 24% in 2025. Electricity from those three sources had made up 21% of US generation in 2023.

EIA forecasts solar will provide 41% more electricity in 2024 than in 2023. Generation from wind grows 5% in 2024 in EIA’s May forecast, but if wind speeds differ significantly from expectations, wind generation could change. EIA expects 6% more hydropower generation in 2023 than in 2024, with the most significant growth in the Southeast.

“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” said EIA Administrator, Joe DeCarolis.

Other highlights from the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) include:

• US retail gasoline prices. EIA forecasts that retail gasoline prices will average near US$3.70/gal. in the US from April through September, similar to prices during the same period last year. EIA plans to publish a STEO supplement analszing how refinery operations could affect retail gasoline prices in the summer driving season next week.
• Coal. EIA increased its forecasts for US coal production and exports, as the immediate impact of the closure of the Port of Baltimore has become clearer. EIA now forecasts that US coal exports will total 99 million short t in 2024 – a 4% increase from its April forecast but still less than expected before the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Although EIA also increased its forecast for coal production in 2024 from last month, it still forecasts 14% less coal will be produced in the US than in 2023.
• Trans Mountain Pipeline. EIA expects that the start-up of the Trans Mountain Pipeline last week will alleviate distribution bottlenecks and support the increase of Canada’s production of liquid fuels to about 6.3 million bpd in 2025, an increase of 500 000 bpd from current production.

For more news and technical articles from the global renewable industry, read the latest issue of Energy Global magazine.

Energy Global's Spring 2024 issue

The Spring 2024 issue of Energy Global starts with a guest comment from Field on how battery storage sites can serve as a viable solution to curtailed energy, before moving on to a regional report from Théodore Reed-Martin, Editorial Assistant, Energy Global, looking at the state of renewables in Europe. This issue also hosts an array of technical articles on electrical infrastructure, turbine and blade monitoring, battery storage technology, coatings, and more.

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