BMI has said that the outlook for Angola’s oil and gas sector is broadly positive with a number of projects currently under development. Yet, the sustained level of low oil prices does pose a risk to production growth post 2020, due to rapid natural decline rates and a slowdown in investment combine to undercut output levels. When it comes to gas production, BMI has said that it will remain limited in Angola throughout the period to 2023, due to low domestic consumption, unfavourable pricing dynamics and demand constraints in key export markets. Export revenues are expected to come under pressure in the coming years, due to the sharp and sustained drop in oil prices, underutilisation of the country’s LNG export terminal and the decline in oil linked LNG prices.
Even though Cameroon is a small oil and a nascent gas producer, BMI has said that oil production should increase slightly after years of decline. Low oil prices could have a significant downside to the upstream production profile but BMI believes that the country is still well positioned for further exploration activity. Oil production is expected to rise to 80 000 bpd and remain close to that level in the coming years. For refining, an ongoing project at the country’s sole refinery will expand refining capacity by a third to approximately 70 000 bpd. In addition to boosting refined fuels production, it will allow for the processing of domestically produced heavier crudes, as opposed to relying almost entirely on lighter Nigerian crude imports.
BMI has revised its oil production forecast for this year in Congo Brazzaville and expects a 30% uplift in crude production with the arrival of new offshore projects. Levels are anticipated to hit 355 8000 bpd this year and 398 900 bpd in 2016. Gas is reportedly going to remain a stranded commodity with modest domestic usage and no formal plans for LNG. In the meantime, BMI has said that gas is primarily used to enhance recovery rates in mature oilfields.
When it comes to downstream, the sector in Congo Brazzaville is to remain a desert. Plans for new refineries keep getting announced, but there is no visible sign of action. In the meantime, the country remains in danger of slipping into importer status for refined products despite its modest domestic demands.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd