OPEC oil market report: Highlights

Oil demand and supply

  • World oil demand in 2015 is now expected to grow by 1.28 million bpd.
  • In 2016, world oil demand growth is forecast to pick up, reaching 1.34 million bpd.
  • Total oil demand for 2016 is expected to be 93.94 million bpd.
  • Next year, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.30 million bpd to average 57.69 million bpd.
  • In 2016, incremental world oil demand is expected to outpace projected non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs.
  • The demand forecast for next year is subject to some uncertainty factors, including the scope of economic growth, industrial production developments, oil price trends, weather conditions an changing oil intensity in different regions, as well as policy changes, including fuel substitution.

Oil products

  • Diesel and gasoline will continue to drive growth in 2016 to supply the expanding transportation sector.
  • Total US liquids production is expected to grow by 0.33 million bpd, just a third of the growth of 0.93 million bpd expected during 2015.

Economic growth

  • World economic growth for 2016 is forecast at 3.5%.
  • OECD economies are expected to expand by 2.1% in 2016.
  • India is forecast to reach higher growth at 7.7% in 2016.
  • Russia and Brazil are forecast to move out of recession.
  • While current oil prices will continue to support the world economy to some extent in 2016, numerous challenges are likely to offset this positive effect, preventing higher growth.
  • The improvement in global economic activities next year is projected to translate into higher oil consumption.

Edited from report by Claira Lloyd

Published on 15/07/2015

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