The IEA Oil Market Report for April raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90 000 bpd to 93.6 million bpd, a gain of 1.1 million bpd on the year. The notable acceleration from 2014’s 0.7 million bpd growth builds on cold first quarter temperatures and a steadily improving global economic backdrop.
Global supply rose by an estimated 1 million bpd during March, to 95.2 million bpd, as OPEC production recorded its highest monthly increase in nearly four years. Year on year gains totalling 3.5 million bpd were split between OPEC and non-OPEC production.
OPEC crude oil output soared by 890 000 bpd in March, to 31.02 million bpd, on sharply higher Saudi Arabian, Iraqi and Libyan supplies. The OMR ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was revised marginally higher for the current quarter, to 30.35 million bpd, above the group’s official production ceiling, but left unchanged for full 2015 from the March Report, at 29.5 million bpd.
OECD industry stocks slipped by 1.7 million bbls in February, despite a massive 36.4 million bbls build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories up a counter seasonal 29.2 million bbls in March, as US crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.
Global refinery crude demand is expected to fall seasonally to 77.3 million bpd in the current quarter, from 78 million bpd in the first quarter of the year. While Atlantic Basin refiners mostly completed turnarounds in the last quarter, Asian refinery maintenance is set to ramp up sharply this quarter, with up to 2.5 million bpd of distillation capacity offline at its peak in May.
Adapted from press release by Rosalie Starling