Oil and gas
Due to recent disappointing shale drilling results, BMI has downgraded its long term gas production forecast. More times, additional exploration and below ground data will be needed to obtain a better idea of the country’s actual shale gas potential and to optimise the drilling and hydraulic fracturing processes required for Poland’s challenging geology.
BMI’s gas consumption forecast for Poland has also been downgraded as the company becomes bearish on the country’s switch to gas in the power sector. Concern about energy security, the unlikelihood of domestic shale gas production before 2020 and concerns of rising electricity bills are providing little incentive for phasing out coal fired power generation and a switch to gas powered generation.
When it comes to oil production, levels are pretty low in Poland and BMI expect levels to continue on a downward trend. The country is going to remain largely dependent on crude oil imports. However, BMI has said that shale oil could constitute a long term upside risk to production, but this is unlikely to materialise by 2023. Refined product consumption is expected to increase to 2023, and will be largely driven by the transport sector. With growing fuel demand and no immediate plans for refining capacity expansion, BMI expects Poland’s refined fuels production to remain close to current levels of 500 000 bpd to 2023.
Petrochemicals output in Poland fell last year, but BMI is predicting an improved performance in 2015 as end use industrial consumers, particularly in the automotive and construction industries, see a more optimistic scenario on both domestic and external markets.
Last year, the country had olefins of 700 000 tpy of ethylene, 475 000 tpy of propylene and 60 000 tpy of butadiene. Polymer capacities included 320 000 tpy of high density polyethylene, 170 000 tpy of low density polyethylene, 400 000 tpy of PP, 550 000 tpy of PVC, 90 000 tpy of polystyrene and 120 000 tpy of polyethylene terephthalate. These capacities seem unlikely to change radically over the medium term and BMI has said that this will be particularly due to shale prospects diminishing and therefore the chance of expanding olefins production.
Edited from report briefs by Claira Lloyd