According to Rystad Energy’s most recent forecasts, non-OPEC liquids possible growth of 5.5 million bpd over the next five years has been cut by over 2 million bpd to 3.3 million bpd.
Latest oil field research shows investments in oil and gas production are estimated to drop 20% in 2015 compared to 2014. Outside OPEC, 200 BUSD in yearly capex is considered to be axed over a two-year period. Subsequently, for every billion dollars being cut in development capex on marginal projects, the production shortfall would amount to 10 thousand bpd. Only US production has been visibly impacted with the trend turning from 20% annual growth during the first quarter of the year to a flat trend in the second quarter. The shortfall of global offshore production may be steeper if oil prices stay low throughout the year.
“In the longer run, anything below 90 US$/bbl is not sustainable due to this steep but delayed supply response and increasing global base declines, while the cost of new production will remain high,” says Rystad Energy’s Oil Trade Analyst Nadia A. Martin.
Adapted from press release by Joseph Green