Douglas-Westwood forecasts strong recovery in vessel demand. According to the World Subsea Vessel Operations Market 2011-2015, expenditure is set to grow 52%, totaling US$ 72 billion between 2011 and 2015. Simon Robb, lead author, commented, “Project timetables are accelerating as confidence returns to the industry, with a shift to larger and more complex deep water projects. Projects are increasingly capital intensive, which is benefitting offshore contractors with the capability and expertise to provide deep water services.
“Global vessel demand for Subsea Vessels is expected to climb beyond 310,000 days for the forecast period 2011-2015 – a 28% increase on the previous five years. Robust growth is expected, with annual expenditure set to rise from US$ 11.2 billion in 2011 to US$ 19 billion by 2015.”
Ian Jones, continued, “By 2015, there will be a move towards more complex deepwater projects being sanctioned and this should benefit the vessel contractors with deepwater capability and engineering experience. The number of vessel days in deep waters is set to increase by more than 50% over the next five years. Deepwater awards will suit contractors with modern vessels fleet, effective project execution skills and a track record in delivering deepwater projects.”
The deepwater ‘Golden Triangle’ is expected to account for 54% of global expenditure over the forecast period. Africa will remain the largest single market by expenditure with over US$ 13.7 billion required over the next five years.
Despite a dip in activity in North America during 2011-2012, due to the economic crisis and the fallout from the Deepwater Horizon incident, vessel expenditure is expected to total almost US$ 13 billion. This is a 21% increase on the previous five years. Latin America is expected to be the third largest market – driven directly by Petrobras’ long-term deepwater and ultra-deepwater strategy.
The Asian and Australasian regions are both expected to witness strong vessel expenditure growth over the next five years.