Global energy demand will continue to grow over the next 20 years, albeit at a slowing annual rate, fuelled by economic and population growth in non-OECD countries. Increased energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable energy are also forecast in BP’s latest Energy Outlook 2030, which was published on 18th January.
Global energy demand is likely to grow by 39% by 2030, or 1.6% annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries; consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4% in total over the period. Global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels, which are forecast to account for 81% of global energy demand by 2030, BP forecasts, down about 6% from current levels. The period should also see increased fuel switching, with more gas and renewables use at the expense of coal and oil.
The gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual clip of more than 8%, much quicker even than natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel at about 2% a year over the period to 2030.
The growth of unconventional supply, including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oilsands and Brazilian deepwaters, against a background of a gradual decline in oil demand, will se the Western Hemisphere become almost totally energy self sufficient by 2030. This means that growth in the rest of the world, principally Asia, will depend increasingly on the Middle East in particular for its growing oil requirements.
Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will continue to lose market share throughout the period although demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million bpd in 2030, up by 18% from 2010. This means the world will still need to bring on enough liquids, oil, biofuels and others, to meet that forecast 16 million bpd of extra demand by 2030 and replace declining output from existing sources.
While coal is expected to continue gaining market share in the current decade, growth will wane in the 2020 – 2030 decade; gas growth will remain steady and non-fossil fuels are likely to contribute nearly half of the growth after 2020.
This year’s Energy Outlook 2010 examines in more detail several important facets of the global energy story: the pathways for economic development and energy demand in China and India; the factors impacting the energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the ‘drivers; of energy consumption in road transportation.
Global CO2 emissions are likely to rise by about 28% by 2030, slower than the current rate of energy demand growth due to the rapid growth of renewables and natural gas. If more aggressive policies than currently envisioned are introduced, global CO2 emissions could begin to decline by 2030.
BP’s work on the Energy Outlook 2030 supplements BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy which will next be published in June 2012.