DNV GL, an independent energy expert and certification body, has provided wind power forecasting services to SSE Renewables over the last 10 years. The assets are spread across 16 projects located onshore and offshore around the UK and have a total installed capacity of 2.8 GW.
Many lessons have been learnt throughout the partnership which have not only benefited both SSE Renewables and DNV GL but have also accelerated decarbonisation by improving the commercial returns of renewable generation.
Lessons learnt include:
- The accuracy of production forecasts is ever improving, driven by better weather models and advancements in data science. Over the last 10 years, errors have been reduced by 30%.
- However, the most accurate forecast does not always bring best value. Changes in the trading mechanisms, such as the shift from dual to single imbalance price mechanism, require new ways of interpreting forecasts with a view to maximise revenue rather than simply accuracy.
- Additional information, such as uncertainty bands and power price forecasting, have become more important to understand the whole picture and deliver increased value to wind farm operators.
- Good communication between forecasting and asset management teams is essential. Understanding both recent and planned downtime events contributes significantly to ensuring that the best forecasts are delivered. DNV GL has worked closely with the SSE team to ensure that its forecasts fit the company’s specific needs.
The co-operation between DNV GL and SSE Renewables initially started on a single offshore wind farm, Greater Gabbard, located in the UK, and has grown into a significant partnership based on delivering precise forecasts. Throughout the journey, DNV GL has developed models together with SSE Renewables to ensure high quality service is provided to aid the SSE Renewables trading team 24 hr/d.
Combining DNV GL’s experience in wind farm modelling and operational data analysis, together with data science and local knowledge of weather models, the company brought together a skilled and diversely experienced team to produce accurate site-specific power forecasts for each of SSE Renewables’ wind farms in the UK.
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