Poland's renewable power capacity to reach 91.5 GW by 2035, forecasts GlobalData

However, ageing coal assets, rising electricity demand, and EU decarbonisation requirements are increasingly influencing capacity planning and investment priorities. As coal-based generation declines, capacity additions are increasingly concentrated in renewable energy technologies. Against this backdrop, Poland’s renewable power capacity is forecast to exceed 91.5 GW by 2035 from around 33.3 GW in 2024, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s report, ‘Poland Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players, and Forecast to 2035,’ reveals that growth in Poland’s renewable power capacity will be supported by national policy frameworks, EU funding mechanisms, and rising electricity demand from industry, services, and households over the forecast period.

Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power account for the majority of renewable capacity additions through 2035. Solar PV capacity stood at around 21.2 GW in 2024 and is forecast to increase to approximately 59.1 GW by 2035, supported by utility scale project development, continued expansion of distributed generation, and auction-based support mechanisms under the Renewable Energy Sources Act.

Onshore wind capacity is forecast to increase from around 10.1 GW in 2024 to about 17.7 GW by 2035, supported by regulatory adjustments to siting rules and renewed investment activity. Offshore wind begins to enter the system from 2026 and is projected to reach around 12.3 GW by 2035, driven by large scale projects in the Baltic Sea under the Offshore Wind Act and long-term contract frameworks.

Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Poland’s renewable expansion is being driven by a combination of national energy policy, EU climate objectives, and large scale infrastructure investment. Frameworks under the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 and the updated National Energy and Climate Plan provide long term visibility for renewable deployment, while transmission investments by Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A., the state-owned Transmission System Operator (TSO), are critical to integrating higher volumes of variable generation into the power system.”

Coal continues to play a significant role in Poland’s power system, but a growing share of the coal fleet consists of ageing units facing rising operating costs and tightening environmental compliance requirements. Higher carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading System, expiring capacity market contracts, and limited investment in extending the life of older plants are accelerating retirements across the fleet. As a result, coal-based generation is expected to decline steadily, with installed coal capacity falling from around 32.2 GW in 2024 to approximately 20.5 GW by 2035.

Natural gas is being expanded to support system reliability and operational flexibility. Gas-fired generation is well suited to mid merit and peak load operation, offering faster ramping capability and lower emissions intensity compared to coal. Supported by expanded LNG import infrastructure, diversified pipeline supply, and strengthened regional interconnections, gas-based power capacity in Poland is expected to increase from around 5.6 GW in 2024 to about 13.2 GW by 2035, reinforcing supply security and supporting rising electricity demand.

Ziauddin concluded: “Poland’s power sector is moving towards a more diversified generation mix, with renewables accounting for the majority of new capacity additions through 2035. Solar PV and wind power are reshaping the system, supported by grid expansion and policy alignment, while gas provides flexibility as coal capacity declines. This approach strengthens supply security and supports Poland’s long term decarbonisation objectives.”

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