Rystad Energy: Africa and Europe set to be the dynamos for the global green hydrogen economy

The major impediment to building these mega projects and associated infrastructure will be investment. According to Rystad Energy research, just 13 MW of the planned 114 GW has reached a final investment decision to date. The continent’s access to land, low labour costs, and renewable power potential has been attracting attention from further afield, with Germany signing offtake deals with Namibia and South Africa. Norway has taken a different approach by providing US$8 million of funding to Scatec, a Norwegian renewable company, to develop green hydrogen projects in Egypt.

These initial moves are set to accelerate as Europe struggles with an ongoing energy crisis and seeks new partners. Part of the recently released EU Green Industrial Plan seeks to promote renewable energy and green hydrogen projects across Africa, with an eye on establishing sustainable investment facilitation agreements to attract and expand regional investments. Germany alone intends to import 50 – 70% of its hydrogen to feed its domestic demand by 2030, with much being sourced from Africa. With plans to construct 17 – 21 GW of hydrogen-ready gas-fired power plants by 2030, Germany’s commitment to the green hydrogen economy is substantial. To facilitate imports, Germany recently launched a €900 million (US$957 million) auction scheme called H2Global, securing purchase guarantees for hydrogen producers outside of Europe exclusively. According to Rystad Energy analysis, African states are currently in the best position to supply green hydrogen in the quantities Europe requires.

“The global green hydrogen economy is beginning to take shape, with Africa and Europe becoming a dynamo of production and use. Africa’s unparalleled mineral reserves are critical for electrolyser production and the region’s fantastic renewable potential combined with Europe’s prodigious production and import targets will not just alter energy flows, they will create them anew,” said Rajeev Pandey, Clean Tech Analyst at Rystad Energy.

Egypt and Morocco

According to Rystad Energy research, there are a total of 52 green hydrogen projects announced in Africa. The production curve shows a sharp increase after 2025 when these projects start ramping up production and reach 7.2 million t by the end of 2035. Most of the announced projects will be producing ammonia as an end-product for export to Europe.

Egypt's unique geographical location at the crossroads of Africa, Europe, and Asia, as well as its control of the Suez Canal, places the country in a strategic position to become a global green energy hub. With 21 projects in the pipeline, Egypt stands in top position in terms of green hydrogen-producing countries in Africa. Scatec struck an agreement with the Egyptian government for the development of a green ammonia facility producing up to 3 million tpy, which will be mainly exported to European and Asian markets. Another project looking for an export market in Europe is the Masdar Ain-Sokhna project, which will be developed by Masdar and Hassan Allam Holding Group using a 4 GW electrolyser plant at the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE), producing 2.3 million tpy of ammonia. Similarly, Globeleq announced it will develop a 3.6 GW electrolyser project at SCZONE, producing ammonia for export to Europe and Asia. Other major green hydrogen projects are the ACME green ammonia project (400 000 tpy), the Fortescue-Egypt-gH₂ project (300 000 tpy), and the SCZONE-ReNew Power project (200 000 tpy).

Morocco's Amun project, with an annual hydrogen capacity of 900 000 tpy and developed by CWP Global along with North American EPC player Bechtel, is the largest in Morocco. The Guelmim-Oued Nour project, announced by Total Eren, will be capable of producing 710 000 tpy of green hydrogen. Other projects contributing to green hydrogen in Morocco include the Hevo Ammonia Morocco project (31 000 tpy), the Masen Green Hydrogen project (8400 tpy), and the Ben Guerir project (125 tpy).

Mauritania

Geographical proximity to the Mauritanian deepwater port of Nouadhibou and the large European market for exports make the green hydrogen project on Mauritania potentially very lucrative. Contributing to Mauritania’s pipeline capacity are the Aman project (with a production of 1.7 million tpy), the Nour Electrolyzer project (1.2 million tpy), and the Masdar-Infinity-Conjuncta green hydrogen project (1.36 million tpy). The US$40 billion Aman green hydrogen project is being developed by CWP Global and is the largest green hydrogen project in Africa. It will have a 15 GW electrolyser capacity, powered by 30 GW of combined solar and wind. The Nour project developed by Africa-focused transitional energy group Chariot Limited and Total Eren is the second-largest green hydrogen project in Mauritania, with the potential to reach up to 10 GW of electrolysis. The US$34 billion Masdar-Infinity-Conjuncta green hydrogen project expects to produce 8 million tpy of hydrogen derivatives using a 10 GW electrolyser capacity. The project will have a strong connection with Germany in terms of both a technology provider and a potential offtaker. However, given their size, if either of these projects gets delayed, Mauritania’s target may be in question. Also, Mauritania’s Socieetee Nationale Industrielle et Mianieere signed a memorandum of understanding with ArcelorMittal to establish a palletisation plant and a direct reduced iron production plant in the country to produce 2.5 million tpy of green steel.

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