Canadian renewable power capacity to reach 70.9 GW in 2035

The country has committed to phasing out coal-fired power by 2030, while accelerating deployment of non-emitting sources such as hydropower, nuclear, and renewables. Against this backdrop, Canada’s cumulative renewable capacity is forecast to reach 70.9 GW in 2035, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% during 2024 – 35, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, ‘Canada Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players, and Forecast to 2035,’ reveals that renewable power generation in Canada grew from 69.5 TWh in 2020 to 86.8 TWh in 2024 at a CAGR of 5.7%. It is estimated to further increase to 154.5 TWh by 2035, recording a CAGR of 5.4% during 2024 – 35. Large hydropower continues to dominate the capacity mix with 48.5% share in 2024. Wind and solar are the fastest-growing segments, with solar photovoltaics (PV) projected to expand from 4.5 GW in 2021 to 26.1 GW by 2035, and onshore wind expected to increase from 14.4 GW in 2021 to 35.7 GW in 2035.

Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Canada’s federal and provincial governments have laid out a comprehensive policy framework to support renewable expansion. Programmes such as the Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program, the Clean Electricity Regulations, and the Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act are providing long-term certainty for investors. In parallel, initiatives like the 30% Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and CAN$10 billion (US$7.4 billion) Clean Power stream of the Canada Infrastructure Bank are accelerating deployment of solar, wind, and storage projects across the country.”

Hydropower remains the backbone of Canada’s system, with provinces such as Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia generating significant surpluses that are exported to the US, where Canada sent 34.6 TWh of electricity in 2024. Nuclear power also continues to play a vital role, with refurbishment of Ontario’s Darlington and Bruce reactors securing over 10 GW of baseload capacity into the 2050s. Meanwhile, Small Modular Reactor (SMR) projects are under development, including the Darlington SMR expected to be operational by 2030.

Looking ahead, opportunities extend to offshore wind and hydrogen. Atlantic provinces such as Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and Labrador are pursuing offshore wind projects, while federal investments, including tax credits and grants, support hydrogen production for domestic decarbonisation and exports to global markets. However, challenges remain, including ageing transmission infrastructure, regional disparities in resource and policy alignment, and continued dependence on fossil fuel exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas.

Mohammed Ziauddin concluded: “Canada’s clean energy transition is strongly supported by hydropower and nuclear, with rapid growth expected in wind, solar, and hydrogen. While grid modernisation and fossil fuel dependence present structural challenges, federal policies, and provincial initiatives are positioning the country to achieve a balanced, low-carbon electricity mix by 2035 and a net-zero grid by 2050.”

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