Global grid congestion – lessons to be learned from the Netherlands

DNV's Energy Industry Insights 2026, drawn from a survey of 1095 senior energy professionals across 96 countries, found that 77% of renewables respondents and 73% of electrical power respondents believe grid infrastructure cannot yet adequately connect renewable sources to areas of high demand. Among electrical power professionals, 91% say greater investment in the power grid is urgently needed.

Those figures sit alongside falling confidence, particularly in Europe, where industry optimism has dropped from 68% to 56% over the past year. The sharpest regional decline in the survey, it is driven by higher energy costs, policy uncertainty and industrial bottlenecks from grid congestion. Meanwhile, electricity supply is forecast to grow 55% over the next 15 years, with artificial intelligence (AI)-driven data centre load, heat pumps and electric vehicle (EV) charging all adding to the pressure on a network built, in many cases, decades ago.

The Dutch case offers a concentrated version of the European challenge and a perfect example of a problem that is not merely consigned to the Netherlands. Grid congestion costs an estimated €40 billion a year, with connection queues running years into the future. A study DNV completed for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, submitted to parliament on 2 April 2026, asked a simple question: how much more could the current network provide if operators were allowed to sweat their assets?

The answer: up to a third more transport capacity is technically available in the high and medium-voltage network through more intensive use of existing components. Around 10 – 15% has already been realised. The remaining 25 – 30% sits unused, held back not by engineering limits but by regulatory, organisational, and procedural constraints.

Grid components are rated under standardised, often conservative test conditions that rarely reflect real operating environments. Overloading, in engineering terms, means running a component above its nominal rating without exceeding its maximum design temperature. Three approaches exist: static overloading, which sets a fixed higher limit based on local conditions; cyclic overloading, which permits higher loads when components can cool between peaks; and dynamic overloading, which uses real-time sensor data to adjust limits continuously.

The current grid is dimensioned around peak conditions, with reliability margins ensured by conservative ratings and N-1 redundancy. Increasing utilisation fundamentally raises the question of whether reliability can be preserved during these moments. While dynamic and cyclic loading are designed to stay within thermal limits, their safe application depends on real-time monitoring, forecasting accuracy and operator response. The trade-off between higher utilisation and resilience must be managed, not assumed.

TenneT, the Dutch national grid operator, is the most advanced example. Its MaxLimit programme has found a potential 10 – 15% additional capacity on roughly half of all overhead lines using higher assumed minimum wind speeds alone, though this has not yet been implemented. For transformers, its Dynamic Transformer Rating programme targets 5 – 20% gains through cyclic loading, with a further 10 – 30% possible through forced cooling. Regional operators are in some respects ahead, with potential medium-voltage cable limits of up to 145% already applied cyclically.

A second route involves the N-1 emergency reserve, capacity held deliberately idle to maintain supply if a component fails or for planned outages and maintenance. Connecting new customers to this reserve would add roughly 10% to TenneT's available headroom.

The barriers are, by and large, not technical. Of the unrealised overloading potential in the high-voltage, or transmission, grid, the dominant constraint is electromagnetic compatibility regulation. Under current Dutch rules, TenneT must commission a full electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) study before raising any network link's operating limit. Those studies take 2 – 6 years, and specialist firms cannot meet demand. For the emergency reserve, using it for supply purposes requires either regulatory exemption or a statutory change to the Energy Decree.

DNV's recommendations to the Ministry focus on EMC reform as the most urgent priority, alongside accelerating the implementation of these concepts with system operators and developing curative N-1 contracting in close co-operation with industrial customers and data centres. New high-voltage connections take eight to twelve years to build. EMC reform combined with accelerated operator programmes could produce visible results by early 2027.

These measures do not replace the need for large-scale grid expansion and reinforcement, but they can bridge the gap while new infrastructure is being developed. The tools described, including cyclic and dynamic overloading, curative N-1 contracting, chain analysis, are not specific to the Netherlands. The regulatory barriers differ by jurisdiction, but the physics is the same everywhere. The Dutch work shows, in technical detail, that a significant share of what is needed is already in the ground. The question is whether the regulatory conditions to use it can be created fast enough in a way that matches the capabilities and implementation pace as the system operators.

Written by Hans de Heer, Principal Consultant, Energy Markets and Strategy, Energy Systems at DNV.

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Read the article online at: https://www.energyglobal.com/special-reports/15072026/global-grid-congestion-lessons-to-be-learned-from-the-netherlands/