With domestic energy demand expected to rise, including to support new homes and growing American industries such as advanced manufacturing and data centres, this new analysis shows major opportunities to build on recent progress in deploying renewable energy resources on federal land to provide a significant source of additional energy capacity in the years ahead.

“DOE is a data-driven agency and the data shows that the nation’s growing energy demand can be met with cleaner, cheaper, more resilient power,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy, Jennifer M. Granholm. “Today’s report underscores how the federal government can be a leader in building out American-made clean energy on federal lands, ensuring a secure and sustainable domestic energy supply.”

“We are pleased to be a partner in this analysis and contribute to growing a sustainable clean energy economy while protecting the natural and cultural resources on our public lands,” added Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management Principal Deputy Director, Nada Wolff Culver. “By working together, we can ensure the responsible development of clean energy across our lands that will help create good paying jobs, lower energy costs for consumers, and support our goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035.”

To understand future renewable energy deployment on federal lands, researchers created seven scenarios with a wide range of possibilities. For each scenario, they used a power sector model to determine the most cost-effective way to deploy new generation, storage, and transmission across the country to meet future energy demand. Those results were then used to produce renewable energy deployment estimates on federal lands.

To ensure realistic assumptions in their model, NREL researchers sought expertise from federal agencies and land administrators in DOE, the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Department of Defense – each of which have varying priorities for managing their lands to achieve agency missions. NREL’s modelilng aligns with recent federal progress on supporting efficient and environmentally responsible renewable energy planning and permitting, including the Bureau of Land Management’s updated Western Solar Plan.

Key findings of the study include:

  • In total, there is technical potential for 5750 GW of utility scale photovoltaics (solar), 875 GW of land-based wind, 130 GW of hydrothermal, and 975 GW of enhanced geothermal generation on federal lands.
  • Even with more stringent siting constraints, such as land use for conservation, livestock grazing, recreation, military use, and more, the technical potential on federal lands remains 1750 GW for utility scale solar and 70 GW for land-based wind.
  • Deployment of geothermal capacity is strongly tied to availability and future cost reductions for enhanced geothermal. Success of enhanced geothermal results in up to 10 GW deployed on federal lands by 2035 and 36 GW by 2050, whereas without enhanced geothermal technologies, less than about 5 GW would be deployed.
  • Out of seven deployment scenarios explored in the study, the three central scenarios find that 51 – 84 GW of renewable energy would be deployed on federal lands by 2035, followed by a scenario that favours utility scale solar and storage, in which deployment goes up to 81 – 128 GW. However, in scenarios where siting on non-federal lands is more constrained, estimated deployment on federal lands increases to 231 – 270 GW by 2035.
  • Of all federal land administrators, the Bureau of Land Management has the highest renewable energy technical potential, followed by the U.S. Forest Service and the Department of Defense. The Department of Energy, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other federal land administrators have relatively modest renewable energy technical potential.
  • Only 4% (8.9 GW) of currently operating renewable energy generation in the contiguous US is located on federal lands, and the scenarios find that up to 12.5% of total 2035 renewable energy capacity could be deployed on federal lands. The Department of the Interior’s recent prioritisation of clean energy permitting could help facilitate this increased deployment. For comparison, 12% of oil production and 11% of natural gas production are located on federal lands.
  • Specific sites with high renewable energy potential were identified for Bureau of Land Management field offices, U.S. Forest Service National Forests and Grasslands, and Department of Defense military installations, ranges and training areas.

 

 

For more news and technical articles from the global renewable industry, read the latest issue of Energy Global magazine.

Energy Global's Winter 2024 issue

Don’t miss out on our last issue of the year! The Winter issue of Energy Global is out now; this issue kicks off with a guest comment from Veronica Maxted, Director of Renewables at RS Group before moving on to a regional report on the current state of the renewables industry in North America. This edition of the magazine also explores key topics such as inspection and maintenance, solar optimisation, energy storage technology, geothermal drilling and operations, and much more. With contributions from key industry leaders such as Viridien, Hexagon, DNV Energy Systems, and Halliburton, among others, dive into the issue and see what you could learn.